Good News for NY, Bad News for Baseball
by
Asher B. Chancey,
BaseballEvolution.com
September 5, 2006
For all you Yankees fans out there, I have good news. For everyone else, not so much.
But first, let me ask you a question who will be this season's AL MVP?
Tough question, right? Let's start with this season's best offensive players.
The hands down, far and away, best offensive players in the AL this season are, unfortunately, a couple of guys named Hafner and Ortiz. I say unfortunately because, for one, they are both designated hitters, and we all know how much MVP voters love to vote for DHs. Second, neither player appears to be headed for the playoffs at this point, and we especially know how much MVP voters like to vote for players who don't make the post-season.
Moving right along, a couple of guys in Chicago are having pretty great years Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye. The only problem with Dye and Thome is the fact that the White Sox won the World Series last year, and it can be hard to vote for guys who play on a team that achieved less this year than the year before.
Still, Jermaine Dye is having a tasty year - .328/.394/.646; 39 HR 107 RBI 89 R.
There are also a couple of guys in Minnesota having great years as well. Joe Mauer may have the best shot of any player not on a division leader this season, for the simple reason that MVP voters have traditionally loved catchers. Mauer is currently leading the AL in batting, and has an OPS over .900 both untouchables for catchers. His runs and RBI numbers are both low, but he walks more than he strikes out, and will get credit for the performance of the Twins pitching staff this season whether deserved or not. Mauer is a bona fide candidate.
The other fantastic Twin is Justin Morneau, also a bona fide candidate. Last season, Morneau was a can't miss who did. In 2005, he barely kept his OBP over .300, and his OPS was a meager .741. This season, his OPS is over .950, his average is over .300, and he has hit 33 HR to go with 114 RBI. If the Twins make the playoffs, Morneau should get plenty of votes, especially if he leads the league in RBI.
Still, maybe we could look to the division leaders to find our MVP.
The Oakland Athletics currently lead the AL West. Their best offensive player is, ta-dah, their designated hitter, Frank Thomas. Unfortunately, MVP voters usually have trouble voting for guys who hit .268, with low numbers of runs scored and RBI. Thomas has been a major boost for the A's this season, but doesn't have the fab MVP numbers.
The Detroit Tigers lead the AL Central. Unfortunately, they have no "best offensive player." Chris Shelton was well on his way to an MVP on April 15th he hasn't been so good since. Many of their players have been solid contributors; none of them have MVP caliber numbers.
Well skip the Yankees for now.
Maybe, in the absence of sure things from the league's best offensive players and division leaders, we should look to the league's big name stars.
In particular, Vlad Guerrero is having a solid season. He's batting .332, OPS over .900, with approaching 30 homeruns, over 100 RBI, and approaching 90 runs scored. Whether he's having a good defensive year or not, his reputation always precedes him, though for what its worth he has 10 outfield errors this season, and a .960 fielding percentage. Nonetheless, if the Angels make an unlikely wild card run, Vlad could be looking at his second MVP.
Miguel Tejada would also be an excellent candidate if not for the dismal performance of the Baltimore Orioles. Miguel is hitting .336, OPS also over .900, with 22 HR, 90 RBI, 90 runs, and approaching 200 hits. Nevertheless, his numbers are not good-player-on-a-bad-team-MVP caliber.
Manny Ramirez would make a fantastic candidate, if anybody was willing to look passed his goofy exterior to see how good he is. Year in and year out, we hear about Manny attitude, and how much he doesn't care. It is kind of like people who think that the
Thriller album is crap because Michael Jackson is a pedophile. He may be creepy, but that doesn't affect his music. Same with Manny I would encourage all my players to be indifferent and goofy if it meant they played like Manny. For what it is worth, .326/.442/.628, 34HR 100RBI, 95/95 BB/K, and 77 runs scored. Fantastic numbers. Not an MVP candidate.
Which brings us, inevitably, to the Yankees. The first three usual MVP candidates on the Yankees are easily disposed of Sheffield has been hurt all year, Giambi is still a juicer, and ARod, well, the media has convinced itself that ARod is now a bad player, so no amount of 35-40 homers, 110-120 RBI, 100-110 runs, .900 OPS can save him from that.
Johnny Damon would be an interesting candidate the much needed off-season acquisition, fixture in centerfield and leadoff, difference maker on offense and defense. The only problem is that, by all media estimations, Damon has been disappointing this year. Damon has set a career high this season in homeruns, has already scored 100 runs, and is on his way to an OPS over .850 for the first time in his career. Still, Damon's reception in New York has been lukewarm, and there is no momentum behind the "Johnny Damon for MVP" campaign.
Unfortunately, this leads me to the only conclusion I can see to the great AL MVP debate of 2006 a certain shortstop on the New York Yankees named Derek Jeter.
Consider:
Who is the most overrated player in Major League Baseball today? Jeter.
Who is the most overrated team in Major League Baseball today? The Yankees.
Who is the symbolic face of the Yankees? Jeter.
Who did S.I. sportswriter Peter King call "this generation's Joe DiMaggio?" Yep - Jeter.
Jeter already has more RBI than he did a year ago, to go with twice as many steals and his highest batting average in seven years. He is currently about four points behind Mauer for the batting title, and his OPS is over .900 for the first time in seven years as well. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and he appears well on his way to 200 hits.
But offense is not the most important Jeter factor its the intangibles that voters love. First of all, he is a "clutch hitter," for what that is worth. Second of all, he is a "team leader," to the extent that is measurable. Third of all, and this is most important, he will be remember for being the "glue that held the Yankees together" this season after the injuries to Matsui and Sheffield. Additionally, with the baseball world convinced that ARod has played poorly this season, Jeter will be seen to have "stepped up" in the place of ARod.
The media loves Jeter, about this there can be no doubt. Where Ted Williams, Albert Belle, Roger Maris, Barry Bonds, and scores of others have alienated the media over the years, Jeter has totally charmed them. What's more, this season the planets have aligned in Jeter's favor. There are no high profile candidates who fit the mold of an MVP better than Jeter, and Jeter has enjoyed one of his best years.
Fact is, predicting an MVP vote is all about analyzing voter bias. There are plenty of MVP voters out there who are biased against DHs. There are plenty of voters who are biased against non-playoff bound players. There are plenty of voters biased against players on teams that performed worse than the year before. To the extent that a pitcher would deserve to win the MVP this year, there are several voters who simply will not vote for a pitcher. And there are plenty of voters who haven't even heard of Justin Morneau or Joe Mauer because they play in Minnesota.
But I know of no voters who are biased against middle infielders, or players on division winners, or Yankees, or Derek Jeter.
And that is why the 2006 American League Most Valuable Player will be the shortstop for the New York Yankees.
Congratulations New York!
Sorry World.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Asher resides in Philadelphia, PA and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.
