Ryan Howard Has 50; Who's Next?
by
Asher B. Chancey,
BaseballEvolution.com
September 3, 2006
After a three homerun performance today in Philadelphia, Ryan Howard becomes the 37th player in Major League history to hit 50 homeruns, and the 28th to hit 52 homeruns, in a single season. Actually, Howard is only the 23rd player ever to hit 50 or more homeruns in a season, but his performance this season is the 37th time it has happened.
With Howard in, and presumably headed for 60, the question in my mind becomes – who is next? Today is September 3rd, which means there is roughly a month of baseball left. After having only one player in the last three years break the 50 barrier, there are actually several players with a good chance of breaking though this year.
David Ortiz - 47
D.O. would probably have 50 by now if not sidelined since August 27th with a mysterious heart ailment. Still, the Red Sox have 25 games left, and if Ortiz can get back for 20 of them, he should be a lock to get the three more homeruns he needs.
Alfonso Soriano – 44
Soriano's year continues to get better – he is currently at 44 homeruns and 36 steals, which makes him virtually a lock for 40/40 after a near miss in 2002, and gives him an excellent shot at 50 homeruns. The Nationals have 26 games left, and hitting 6 homeruns and stealing 4 bases will be daunting, but doable.
Travis Hafner – 42
Picked the wrong time to be plunked on the hand. Hafner has been out for the last couple of days, but tests reveal that his hand is just bruised. Eight homeruns in the Indians 27 remaining games may be a bit much to ask, but Hafner could get hot.
Albert Pujols – 42
Ryan Howard's "Three-Homerun-Sunday" buddy went from 39 to 42 in one day. If any other player in the league besides Hafner and Pujols had 42 homers with 27 games left, I would not include them on this list. Since it is these guys, I would be silly not to.
Also, remember that Pujols was on the DL for a spell this season. So he actually has 42 homeruns in 117 games. His G/HR pace – 2.785 – is topped only by Howard – 2.557 – and Ortiz – 2.723 – on this list.
The 39 homerun club as of today consists of Jermaine Dye, Adam Dunn, and Carlos Beltran. While each of these guys is having a great year, I don't see them hitting 11 homeruns between September 4th and the end of the year.
In 2001, four major leaguers – Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Luis Gonzalez, and Alex Rodriguez each hit 50 or more homeruns. In 1998, there were also four players to accomplish the feat – Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Greg Vaughn.
This season, if David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, Travis Hafner, and Alfonso Soriano can have big Septembers, that would give us five.
And here we thought the long-ball era was over!
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Asher resides in Philadelphia, PA and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.
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