As Wrong as Wrong Can Be
by
Asher B. Chancey,
BaseballEvolution.com
September 13, 2006
As we all know, my predictions with respect to the Washington Nationals went horribly wrong this season. More specifically, my predictions with regard to a certain left fielder by the name of Alfonso Soriano have just turned tragic. In fact, the level of hilarity increases with each passing day.
For starters, Soriano has been a smash hit in Washington, both with the fans and with his teammates. Not enough can be said about what a good guy he is, what a joy he is to have in the clubhouse, etc. Soriano will probably be the team captain of the Nationals next season, should he stick around.
Secondly, the offensive collapse that I predicted has not only not happened, but Soriano has gone in the opposite direction. This season, Soriano is currently .289/.359/.592. Not bad for a guy who I predicted to have an OBP under .300. In fact, his OBP is currently a career high, by over 20 points, and his SLG is current a career high as well, by almost 50 points. Soriano has walked 57 times – his previous career high was 38, in 17 more games than he has currently played.
Thirdly, despite making the switch from second base to left field, and despite some well documented gaffs thus far, Soriano shockingly leads all National League outfielders in outfield assists this season with 21! Obviously, some of those assists probably have to do with guys underestimating Soriano in the field, but still – it is
shocking.
But wait, it gets worse (or better, depending on who you are). For the fourth time in his career, Soriano has gone 30/30. However, for the first time in his career, it appears that Soriano is about to go 40/40 (he currently has 39 steals with 16 games left). As I am sure you know, this would mean that he would join Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, and Alex Rodriguez as the only members of the 40/40 club, a club he just missed joining in 2001 when he went 39/41.
And, in the "oh by the way" department, Soriano is the first player ever to have 40 homers, 30 steals, and 20 outfield assists in one season.
But wait, it gets worse yet. Soriano currently has 45 homeruns. The Nationals have 16 games left after tonight. That means Soriano has 16 games left to get five homeruns and he would join the 50 homerun club! Geez, there is probably no more solid indication that you blew a prediction than to have a guy you thought would have a bad year bust out with 50 homeruns and a 40/40 season.
Oh wait, I was wrong, there is a worse indication yet. Soriano also currently has 38 doubles. Guess how many players have hit 40 homeruns, stolen 40 bases, and hit 40 doubles. The answer is zero. Soriano appears to be on the brink of being the first.
At the beginning of the season, my brother Andrew was all about Soriano. I kept telling him how bad Soriano was going to be, and soon, he came to grudgingly accept that I might be right. Now, it turns out that Andrew
was right, and I was wrong. Dead wrong.
If Alfonso Soriano finishes this season with 40 doubles, 50 homeruns, 40 stolen bases, and 20 outfield assists, my prediction of his 2006 season will turn out to be the most incorrect single prediction in the history of baseball.
That will be something.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Asher resides in Philadelphia, PA and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.
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