Keith has gotten a bit of mail on his July article in which he predicted that the Yankees will not make the playoffs.  Here is part three:

Brian Ring:

Keith:

It's funny, Brian, but that's one of the few elements of the article that I don't regret.  Cano's Predicted OPS is still just .748, and that could even get worse as teams exploit him with high fastballs.  Of course, back when I wrote the article, Cano was something like the sixth best hitter in the lineup.  Now he's more like the eighth, in which case a .748 OPS is perfectly acceptable.

Good luck with your writing career, and feel free to submit something to Baseball Evolution in defense of Cano if you like. 

-----------------------

Steve Ondrejack:

Keith:

No problem.  If you'd like to further split your belly, I'll show you where I predicted Jae Wong Seo to lead the NL in ERA this year!

-----------------------

Pat Coquito:

You wrote the YANKEES off in 2006 and if you look at the standings now 
you 
will see them leading the toughest division (AL East) by 10 games and 
counting. 
They also have the BEST record in all of Baseball. Your Red Sox 
(Blowsox) are 
the laughing stock of the AL  and may be passed by Toronto in the next 
few 
days. 
So how does it feel for you "EXPERT" to feel like an "IDIOT" right 
about now. 
 We know the YANKEES are hated by many (Jealousy perhaps?) and that is 
why we 
keep winning World Championships to shut off the mouth of all the so 
called 
EXPERT ANALYSTS who know nothing while pretending they do. So why don't 
you eat 
some CROW and write a columm explaining HOW LITTLE YOU KNOW ABOUT 
BASEBALL!!!

Have a nice winter after watching the YANKEES  win # 27

Keith:

Pat, if you look at the standings now, you will see that the AL Central is the toughest division in baseball, not the East.  I think that part of the reason that the Yankees are hated is because many Yankee fans like you are too narrow-minded to see such things.  The other reason is that most of the media tends to overrate them.  So you should be delighted; by underrating the Yankees, I may have helped to increase their fan base.  You'll be less enthralled to learn that the Yankees still aren't very likely to reach the World Series this year.  That's one thing I will write an article about in the near future.

Pat C:

I think the narrow-minded here is YOU. You said the YANKEES are 
overated??? I 
will remind you that the YANKEES are the winningest sport franchise in 
the 
whole world. Who else has won 26 World Championships? I knew you will 
come up 
with some stupid answer because the YANKEES has make you look like an 
IDIOT.  
By the way, the AL West division is made out of loosers that the 
YANKEES has 
used as punching bag. I bet you come from Arizona or Colorado.  I am 
sure your 
only thrill is to go to a ballgame, eat a hot dog and go home after 
another 
loss.  If I were you, I will wait before writing another columm until 
AFTER the 
World Series so the YANKEES will not make you look like and IDIOT twice 
in a 
row. Have a nice day and don't forget to root for the Diamondbacks or 
Rockies.......
Another thing....THE NEW YORK YANKEES do not need your negative opinion 
or 
comments to create a bigger fan base. The YANKEES fill EVERY baseball 
stadium 
where ever they play including the Diamondbacks and Rockies because 
they all 
want to see THE YANKEES!!  Don't forget the cash revenue the YANKEES 
paid to help 
the less fortunate teams survive. If it wasn't for the YANKEES, you 
would not 
have a place to go to watch a ballgame and eat your hot dog. Think 
about it!!!

Keith:

You misread me, Pat.  Perhaps I should capitalize every other word.  The AL Central is the tough division, not the West.  As I write this, the Central has 20 more wins on the season than the East does.  I'm not sure there's much to argue with there.

That being said, you were even incorrect about your assessment of the West; the Yankees are just 18-17 against them on the year.  A winning record, but they've hardly been the "punching bags" you made them out to be.

Regarding attendance, several teams sell out more often than the Yankees do, and the Cubs and Red Sox fill visiting stadiums at least as well as the Yankees do.  You are continuing to display an inability to recognize teams in the league besides the Yankees.  It's a shame, because there are many informed Yankee fans out there, but those like yourself will continue to taint the overall perception of the fan base.

-------------

Bob L:

Keith:

Bob, I understand that Cano is overachieving and that Cabrera has been okay, but what are you seeing in Williams, Phillips, and Cairo that I'm not?  Those guys are not useful players.  If they were still getting the majority of the playing time in New York, the Yankees wouldn't look quite as hot as they do now.

I was totally wrong about the Yankees missing the playoffs, something that was pretty evident once the Bobby Abreu deal got done, and I have shown some accountability in that regard.  Some people won't be happy until I hang myself over one bad prediction, though.

-------------------

Axel Gardner:

• Perhaps A-Rod has dragged the defense down, but Jeter, not a good defender? Excuse me as I burst out into hysterical laughter. Damon meanwhile is a great improvement, making dozens of catches that Bernie would not have gotten. Also, his offense has been amazing, providing already more home runs now than he did all of last year with the Red Sox. Finally, if Wang is such a bad choice for the team and its defense, why is he a Cy Young candidate? In the words of Carlos Mencia, "DEE DA DEE!"
• If he had more plate appearances, Cano would also be in the run for the batting title. Cano's discipline at the plate has also been vastly improved.
• Boston almost just got swept for the second time by those "pushover" Royals.
• Not sure what team you're watching, but last time I checked, guys named Guiel and Wilson were contributing to the team, especially in giving guys like Giambi and A-Rod time off.
• Vazquez and Weaver are good pitchers?! Hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Your standards are very bad.
• We managed to pick up Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle, both who have contributed well to the team. 90 wins? Wow. We're 5 wins away from 90 with more than three weeks in the season left. Not only that, we have the best record in the AL currently (Tigers collapsing). Finally, we have a 99.9% chance of clinching the AL East, especially with the magic number dwindling.
• And last but not least, my favorite part:
  
  The Yankees entered the weekend one-and-a-half games behind the division leading Red Sox and miles behind the Wild Card leading White Sox. They'll end the season behind both the Red Sox and the Blue Jays in the East, and probably even the Twins in the Central. Here are the top five reasons that the Yankees will fall flat and disappoint their fans.
  
  Wow, the Red Sox have had one of the most terrible collapses in recent memory. Their 1-2 punch of Schilling and Beckett are absolutely horrendous. Their combined home run total is 61, their combined ERA is pretty laughable, as is their WHIP. Both Schilling and Beckett have allowed themselves to get smacked around by the fu*king Kansas City Royals, those "pushovers". The Sox offense depended on Papi way too heavily and that was a mistake. Papelbon was good until he got injured, but the fact is he blew more saves than Mariano Rivera did.
  
  And don't even get me fu*king started on Coco Crisp...
  
  So I wonder, do you actually get paid to make these awful predictions and sound like a complete moron? That must be an exhilarating job.
   

Keith:

Thanks for writing, Axel.  While I clearly whiffed on the prediction that the Yankees would not make the postseason, I think you've made several erroneous points yourself here.

First of all, Jeter is the problem with the defense, not ARod.  With just about any defensive metric you want to use, Jeter is going to rank as one of the worst defensive shortstops among current starters, especially with Michael Young showing some improvement this year.  In fact, I've read several convincing arguments that he is the worst defensive shortstop to ever play over 1,500 games at the position.  I'm not going to go that far, but even if you're not a stats guy, you don't have to watch too many Yankees games to see enough slow rollers pass Jeter by to realize that he is not an asset on defense.

I never questioned Damon's range, just whether his outfield range would aid an extreme groundball pitcher like Wang.  What I later learned is that Wang has been helped by the grounds crew softening the dirt in front of home plate at Yankee Stadium.  This explains Wang's extreme home/road splits, as well as why Cano and Jeter's range-specific stats are going to look a bit better this year than last.

As of this writing, Robinson Cano has 17 walks in 412 at bats.  Sadly, that is an improvement, but I think you're being a little too liberal with the word "vastly."

The Royals, however, have "vastly improved" since they fired Allard Baird, and the Yankees may have lucked out by mostly playing them early in the year.  While I'll take the blame for not seeing the Royals' improvement coming, I think you're confusing your Wilson's.  CRAIG Wilson has no bigger fan than myself; he has been an excellent addition to the club.  KRIS Wilson, the ex-Royal and only Wilson on the club when I wrote that article, posted an 8.64 ERA, and is no longer with the team.  Maybe you've seen more Yankees games this year than I have, but I don't believe that a pitcher has been spelling Giambi and ARod this year.

As for Vazquez and Weaver:

Pre-Yankees ERA: Vazquez-4.16 Weaver-4.42

Yankees-on ERA: Vazquez-4.67 Weaver-4.69

Weaver and Vazquez were 25 and 26 respectively when they joined the Yankees.  They were each among the most promising pitchers in the game when they were acquired, and looked to make drastic improvements as they would benefit from the better defense and run support that the Yankees offered over the Tigers and the Expos.  In fact, Vazquez was 7th in all of baseball in strikeouts from 1998-2003.

Nevertheless, both pitchers declined significantly once the Yankees began to tinker with their mechanics.  The dropoff isn't as noticeable for Weaver, because he spent two years in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium in his post-Yankees career.  If you just look at adjusted ERA, these once-promising pitchers have both been about equally ruined.

Finally, Curt Schilling is currently 9th in the American League in Fielding-Independent ERA.  His numbers would look a lot better were he not in hitter-friendly Fenway park, and is the least of the Red Sox' problems.

In short, there were several mistakes in my article, but in your haste to criticize you made quite a few of your own.  For the most part, I stand by my methodology and my analysis.  I will continue to make bold predictions, and I hope I will continue to hit more of them than I miss.     
 

-------------

Hasan Karim:

Keith:

Sorry for the delayed response, Hasan.  As you might expect, yours is not the only response I've received to the article in question.  I do, however, think that you're confusing my article with another in some respects, as I did not complain about the payroll or even mention the middle relief in my piece.  In fact, I'm vehemently opposed to teams/fans that use payroll as an excuse for losing, and have just written a column on that very subject.

As far as eating crow goes, I do most of my dining here.

Enjoy your postseason.

Hasan Karim: