Lee vs. Halladay 12/18/09
The Fountain of Coors 1/4/05
How big of an immediate upgrade is Halladay for the Phillies?
'09 Alex Gonzalez Awards 12/16/09
Jermaine looked as though he Dyed and Freddy Sanchez took a Giant step backwards.
Winter Meetings Roundup 12/12/09
Five winners and five losers in Indianapolis
Linear Saves 2009 11/25/09
Mariano Rivera Impresses, Fernando Rodney Surprises, and Brad Lidge Astounds.
Bad 2009 Predictions 11/16/09
Keith Swings and misses on the Mets, Indians, and Giants like a blindfolded Mark Reynolds.
October 27, 2009 - World Series Previews –10/27/09
This is the matchup that most people were expecting and most people were hoping for: The Philadelphia Phillies versus the New York Yankees. The Phillies are the first team since the Yankees to defend a World Series title. The Yankees go for World Championship #27 and World Championship #1 in their new stadium. Who will prevail? Keith and Asher take sides:
Yankees in Four | Keith:
Phillies in Seven
Angels/Yankees ALCS Preview> 10/15/09
The two best offenses in baseball vie for the American League crown.
Twins/Yankees ALDS Preview 10/7/09
The best team in baseball squares off against the hottest team in baseball.
Red Sox/Angels ALDS Preview 10/5/09
Two AL powerhouses square off in the Division Series for the fourth time in six years.
Three Inexcusable Omissions 9/16/09
Flick, Garciaparra, and Terry fail to make Asher's Top 200 List
Pirate Exodus 8/4/09
The Pirate ship has exploded. Is it a cheap captain hoarding his treasure, or a clever maneuver designed to seize a better rival ship?
Grading the Deadline Deals 8/1/09
Keith takes a stab at evaluating the major deadline deals that do not involve the Pittsburgh Pirates.
How Good Is Dan Haren? 7/26/09
Dan Haren is on pace for one of the best pitching performances of this decade... or is he?
Are The 2009 Rays The 2006 White Sox? 7/17/09
The 2008/2009 Rays are following the unfortunate path of the 2005/2006 Chicago White Sox.
The Legacy of Ivan Rodriguez 5/16/09
I-Rod is known for bringing winning ways wherever he goes, but is that reputation still justified?
Remembrance of Voros McCracken 4/15/09
Nearly 10 years after we first heard about it, what do we really know about Defense-Independent Pitching?
The Fielding Bible Volume II 3/19/09
The Fielding Bible made history, and its sequel is just as revolutionary.
Manny vs. C.C. 2/3/09
Manny Ramirez and C.C. Sabathia represent two of the biggest-impact midseason acquisitions of all time. Which acquisition made more of an impact?
Second Half Chokers 1/22/09
With the 2008 award season in the rear view mirror, Baseball Evolution finally doles
Mark Redman and
Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins Awards. Better late
than never. Of course, since these awards stigmatize the pitcher and
hitter who collapsed most in the second half of the season, the motto for our
winners should probably be, "better never than late."
The Book That Overrated Babe Ruth 12/3/08
In The Year Babe Ruth Hit 104 Home Runs, Bill Jenkinson does the impossible and exaggerates the greatness of the best baseball player ever.
THT: The Manager of the Year 11/26/08
Michael Lichtman uses a complex formula to credit managers for overachieving and determine how lucky teams were in 2008.
Linear Saves 2008 11/13/08
Evaluating a historic season for closers using linear weights.
Another Gold Glove Gaffe
What were voters thinking when they awarded Nate McLouth a Gold Glove?
A Poor Year for Asian Imports
Akinori Iwamura's World Series struggles typified the struggles of Asian players in the US this year.
The Glabbe Gaffe
Keith once posited that the Mark DeRosa deal would be a poor one for the Chicago Cubs. Whoops.
Bucs Plunder Yanks in Nady Deal
Contrary to conventional sentiment, the Pirates got way more back for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte than they should have, and the Yankees did little to help their bid for the postseason.
Ricciardi Loses It
Recent comments and transactions have made it clear: Blue Jays GM JP Ricciardi has gone quite insane.
Mike Piazza Retires
Where does Mike Piazza rank among the all-time great catchers? Caught Stealing Runs help us find an answer.
Blue Jays Release Frank Thomas
JP Ricciardi has completely lost it.
Streaky Secret Weapon?
Is Pedro Feliz' supposed streakiness anything more than random variation?
I Hate Milwaukee; I Hate The Brewers
Keith's bias shines through as he analyzes the Brewers and the "city" in which they play.
Linear Saves 12/28/07
Keith has developed a new method of evaluating closers throughout the ages.
Heart and Soul Update 12/28/07
When the Dodgers lost their Heart and Soul in 2004, it actually worked out pretty well for the ball club.
2007 Mark Redman Award 12/7/07
Only two serious candidates appear in the National League, but we find a plethora of fat second half earned run averages in the junior circuit.
2007 Alex Gonzalez of ther Marlins Award 12/7/07
We find but two standouts in a disappointing American League crop, while the National League featured a multitude of second-half chokers.
Retaining Wood; Retaining Good 11/28/07
The Cubs' fortunes have shifted along with Kerry Wood's.
Can a SP Win an MVP? 11/21/07
Ever since the advent of the five-man rotation, starting pitchers haven't been considered for MVP Awards.
2007 Gold Glove Analysis 11/7/07
Many good picks this year, but there are still several that neeed to be questioned.
Braves Sell High (Again) 10/30/07
The Atlanta Braves traded SS Edgar Renteria to the Detroit Tigers for for RHP Jair Jurrjens and OF Gorkys Hernandez.
Rusty Rockies? 10/30/07
Debunking the theory thet the Rockies got swept in the World Series due to an extended layoff.
Best and Worst General Managers 9/17/07
Ranking the five best and five worst general managers who worked in baseball this year.
The 45/3 Club 8/22/07
Joe Borowski is poised to become the undisputed champion of a somewhat dubious club.
PECOTA Was Right 8/22/07
No one could have predicted that the White Sox would be so bad this year. No one except PECOTA, that is.
The Next 300-Game Winners 8/13/07
Tom Glavine was not the last of a dying breed. 300-game winners are neither extinct nor even endangered.
Exclusive Dave Stewart Interview 7/25/07
We get an opportunity to pepper one of the greats with questions about his career.
Pierce and Waner: Finally Recognized 7/24/07
Two forgotten greats finally get their due.
Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins Award Candidates
Mark Redman Award Candidates 7/12/07
Here are some players you should trade in your fantasy leagues while they still have some value.
All-Star Voting: Fans vs. Players 6/28/07
Believe it or not, the fans outperformed the players in the All-Star selection process.
3,000 Hits, 500 Homers 6/28/07
Traditional milestones should not define the careers of Frank Thomas and Craig Biggio.
Batting Runs Over Average vs Over Replacement Player 6/10/07
What exactly does Value Over Replacement Player mean?
Active Players and the Top 200 List 5/17/07
Where do active players rank among the all time greats? Are there any new faces to look for on Keith's Top 200 list?
Rick Peterson Joins Elite Company 5/04/07
Dave Duncan and Leo Mazzone are two of the best pitching coaches ever, and Rick Peterson deserves to be mentioned right alongside of them.
The Scoop on Lyle Overbay 3/31/07
Keith combines traditional fielding stats with some new ones in gauging a first baseman's ability to handle poor throws.
Lopsided Trades 2/12/07
These aren't all famous trades, but they're some of the most one-sided that you'll see...
Splitsville: Ground Ball Pitchers 2/1/07
It's neat to have a sinkerballer on your staff when you play in a park that gives up a lot of homers. But there's more to these ground ball pitchers than meets the eye..
Revolutionary Competitive Balance 1/29/07
For competitive balance to become a reality in Major League Baseball, a revolution must occur. Not in baseball's economic system, but rather in the way that teams conduct themselves within the current system.
Was Robin Robbed? 1/23/07
For two years in a row, Scott and Asher have each voted Robin Roberts a "2"
while Keith has voted him a "0" for the
Baseball Evolution Hall of Fame.
No Automatic Elections 1/12/07
An examination on how much weight to put on career milestones for Hall of Fame candidates.
Lobbying for Managers 1/9/07
Keith doesn't think that he and the rest of Baseball Evolution gave Dick Williams, Leo Durocher, or Charlie Grim a fair shake at the Hall of Fame.
Leading Off the New Year... 1/1/07
Where does one begin when comparing leadoff hitters' seasons? Keith explains his methods, then ranks some of the top leadoff seasons of the past 50 years.
The Uribe Name Lives On 12/08/06
An ode to Jose Alta Uribe
The 2006 Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins Award 12/03/06
Did Alex win his own award in 2006??
Where's Carlos? 11/21/06
Why did Carlos Guillen receive no consideration for the MVP Award?
Managerial Madness 11/19/06
Keith analyzes the managerial changes around baseball and keeps his mouth shut about Girardi.
Manager of the Year Analysis 11/15/06
Keith has his last say on the subjuct of Joe Girardi, and takes a swing or two at Jim Leyland while he's at it.
The DeRosa DeBacle 11/15/06
Once again, the Cubs are overpaying at their favorite restaurant: Flukies.
For Whom The Belle Resembles 11/15/06
Albert Belle is more than kinda like Kiner, but shouldn't be compared to Johnny Mize.
Padres/Indians Trade Analysis 11/9/06
The Padres and Indians kick-started this offseason's wheeling and dealing with an intriguing three player deal. Keith breaks it down.
The Mark Redman Award 10/28/06
What is a Mark Redman? A Mark Redman is someone who is ostensibly valuable in the first half of the season then shows his true colors after the All Star Break.
2006 Braves Team Review 10/28/06
The Braves stopped pitching, and the Braves stopped winning. Simple, isn't it? Not quite, writes Keith.
Not A Good Fit 10/04/06
There's no conspiracy; Joe Girardi simply isn't a good manager for a young ballclub.
NLDS Preview: Dodgers at Mets 10/03/06
The red hot Dodgers take on the powerhouse Mets in what should be the closest matchup in the Division Series.
The New Savior? 9/24/06
Where should we rank Trevor Hoffman among both contemporary and historical closers?
Don't Disrespect Dunn 9/15/06
Anyone who doesn't see greatness in Adam Dunn is a Dunnce.
It's Not About the Money 9/12/06
Keith is sick of people whining about payroll inequality.
Baseball De-Evolution; Baseball Re-Evolution 9/02/06
A new Vintage Base Ball Federation signals that the time is right for a prominent women's baseball league.
Homerun Explosions and Hometown Heroes 7/25/06
An anonymous writer wins the Boneheaded Sports Analyst of the Month Award; a panel of so-called experts gets a dishonorable mention.
Dominant Dennis Eckersley 7/20/06
A comparison of the top closers of the late 80's and early 90's.
Ken Singleton vs. Jim Rice 7/17/06
Against his better jusgment, Keith responds to Asher's disdain for Ken Singleton.
Recent Article Updates 7/15/06
A lot has happened in the past couple of months, so Keith thought that he would update some of his more recent articles.
Top 10 Reasons Why PNC Park Is Superior to Wrigley Field 7/8/06
Keith is sure to become hated by multitudes of Cubs fans, but it needed to be written.
2006 All Star Picks 7/3/06
Keith analyzes the players and gives us his All Star rosters.
Win Twins! 6/28/06
The Twins are the most improved team in June, and it's mostly because of a GM who isn't afraid to make moves.
Perpetuating All Star Voting Errors 6/28/06
Keith thinks that Richard probably shouldn't have started casting stones at All Star voters if he wasn't going to be objective himself.
Giambi as Good as Ever 6/14/06
Over the past year, Jason Giambi has been as good as he has been during any period of his career.
Splitsville: The First Two Months 6/01/06
For the players with vastly disparate April and May stats, Keith takes a look and decides which month more accurately reflects each player’s abilities.
Addition by Subtraction 5/25/06
The Toronto Blue Jays made two transactions after Wednesday’s game that are destined to be referenced anytime a baseball writer uses the phrase “addition by subtraction.”
What a DisGrace! 5/18/06
Mark Grace was special beyond his contributions on the field, and deserves to be so honored by the Cubs.
Bad Fish? Blame Girardi
The Marlins are floundering, and we need look no further than the Head Fish to figure out why.
Brock as Bad as Advertised
Slower, and more clearly this time: Louu Broock is Overraaateed!!!
Keith defends the Moneyball draft of 2002, and Billy Beane's drafting policies in general.
High on Lowe 3/30/06
Keith defends his startling prediction that Derek Lowe will win the NL Cy Young Award in 2006.
Fortune-Telling is a Lost Art
Jeff Passan makes some clearly solid predictions for the upcoming season, but is then somehow unable to defend their solidity.
2005 Team Notes Part Two 3/20/06
See what strength of schedule, Rookie of the Year trends, groundball/flyball ratios, and impact players mean for various teams.
What Steroids Do for Ballplayers 3/08/06
Game of Shadows has erased most doubts about Bonds' involvement with steroids, but how much have steroids affected Bonds’ success in the game of baseball? See also Bonds' hypothetical career totals.
Pray for Rain?Are You Insane? 2/11/06
Were Spahn and Sain really the only quality pitchers on the post-WWII Boston Braves?
Lou Brock vs. Max Carey 1/28/06
Lou Brock may have held the all-time steals record for a dozen years, but someone else was the games best basestealer for the first 100 years of organized baseball.
Pre-World War I Pitcher Analysis 1/28/06
An era marked by lots of short-lived dominance and lots of fun nicknames proves that Smokey Joe Wood was just one of the crowd.
Belle Still Doesn't Get Enough Credit 1/18/06
Teddy Greenstein dares to claim that not only does Albert Belle not deserve to be in the Hall of Fame, but that the 40 votes he received this year were way more than he deserved. The consequenses of such bold words include winning Baseball Evolution’s first Boneheaded Baseball Analyst award for the new year.
Splitsville: 2005 Batters 1/9/06
Brewers, Blue Jays, Phillies, Rangers, and Mets fans: see how a
careful analysis of split statistics elucidates your team's offseason moves.
Hall of Fame Defense 12/30/05
When Asher takes a look at Ten Hall of Famers who indicate that Gil Hodges deserves to be in the Hall, Keith reviews the list, and thinks that Asher misevaluated defensive dominators.
Dave Duncan and Ponson Possibilities 12/30/05
The Cardinals are hoping for a big payoff on the $1 million contract they just signed Sidney Ponson to. Keith believes that the power of Dave Duncan will make this a worthwhile move for the Redbirds.
Overpaying for Pitching Part Two 12/19/05
This year's trend is rewarding aging, historically mediocre pitchers coming off of fluke seasons.
2005 Team Notes Part One 12/7/05
An analysis of some interesting statistical trends for half a dozen teams in each league: Yankees, White Sox, Twins, Royals, A's, Mariners, Philles, Mets, Astros, Brewers, D'backs and Giants are all included in this edition.
Splitsville: 2005 Pitchers 11/30/05
After sifting through some interesting staring pitching splits concerning Pre/Post All Star Break, Home/Away, and Lefty/Righty statistics, Keith uncovers a trend among relievers that might just alter the way you analyse them from now on.
The Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins Award! 11/22/05
Baseball Evolution presents a ne award to the player in easch league who falls the flattest on his face during the second half of the season.
2005 Managers of the Year Analysis 11/15/05
Good choice in the AL, conspiracy in the NL.
2005 Gold Glove Analysis 11/11/05
There's still a lot of room for improvement by the voters, but there are signs of hope...
Splitsville: a fun romp through situational statistics 9/27/05
Keith unearths some interesting numbers on Hoyt Wilhelm, Eddie Murray, Dick Allen, Bob Tewksbury, Eddie Mathews, The Big Hurt, and Tony Perez in his inaugural analysis of baseball splits.
Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune - "Method to Predict Madness" 9/9/05
An editor from the Chicago Tribune forced Phil Rogers to create a formula quantifying how prepared each playoff contender is to succeed in the postseason. Keith only has seven major problems with his methodology, but it's enough to make him September's Bonehead Sports Analyst.
Milton Bradley... Are You Kidding Me? 8/23/05
Now that Milton Bradley is injured again, he's free to say silly things to reporters. Here are a few good ones made just minutes after Bradley described his feud between teammate Jeff Kent and himself a "dead issue."
Asher Chancey's Article on Forty Current Players Bound for the Hall of Fame Impresses...but There Are a Few Problems. 8/6/05
It's no secret that Asher and Keith have different opinions on their Top 100 Lists, but Asher's latest article on the 40 active ballplayers likely bound for the hall illustrates an even greater disparity on who they believe is deserving of the hall...
Scott Podsednik, the Problems With OPS, and the Value of a Stolen Base 7/30/05
The South Siders have a guy in Scott Podsednik who is a lot more valuable on offense than his OPS suggests...read what ramifications this has for the use of OPS, SB, and SB% to evaluate leadoff hitters.
The We Don't Need No Stinkin' Steroids Team 7/24/05
Jason Giambi leads a host of players who have handled themseves pretty darn well despite being off the juice, while Brian Roberts reminds us that career years do occur in nature.
Pittsburgh Still Has Lots of Fight Left 7/11/05
Keith examines the Pittsburgh Pirates at the All-Star break, and provides the top five reasons that they will still reach the .500 mark by season's end.
Praised Be the Triple Crown Statistics 6/30/05
Tim McCarver makes such disgustingly obtuse statements about On-Base Percentage during a Fox Game of the Week that we had to expand our "Bonehead Sportswriter of the Month Award" to include sports analysts from all mediums.
State of the Nationals Address 5/28/05
Keith has done some research on why the Nationals are exceeding expectations, and examines the future of their season.
Trade Analysis: Latroy Hawkins for Jerome Williams and David Aardsma 5/28/05
Whether the Cubs are attemping to replace Mark Prior, or simply gearing up for the future,
this trade won't help them much.
Unable to Evaluate Closers 5/18/05
During the course of very few sentences, AP writer Alan Robinson criticizes Trevor Hoffman, praises Jose Mesa, and labels Danny Kolb a 'star reliever.'
Don't Tell the Giants...4/05/05
Sports Weekly's Bob Nightengale earns our inaugural Bonehead Sportswriter of the Month Award for his reckless support of Pedro Feliz and the Barry Bondsless Giants.
The Ten Silliest Things Written by Asher on BaseballEvolution.com 1/21/05
Asher B. Chancey is a good friend of mine, and generally very knowledgeable about baseball. But every so often he says or writes something that makes me question his sanity. Here are the top 10 that are documented on this site:
The Bigfield Universe 1/12/05
Many people from our universe would be shocked to learn just how easy it could have been for the Pirates to have finished over .500 last season... with the best pitching staff in baseball.
Everyone knows that players hit well in Coors field... but why do they continue to hit well after they leave?
Overpaying for Pitching 12/10/04
No doubt about it; pitchers are getting better contracts than hitters this offseason. Question is: Why?
2004: Year of the Third Baseman10/18/04
This year's crop of breakout seasons for third basemen remind us of the summer of '93
Take a Pitch; A Walk Can Win a Game 8/31/04
A mind-bendingly intense statistical analysis of why even the very best hitters are better off taking a walk than expanding their strike zone and being overly aggressive.